Research already shows that the more education you have, the more likely you’ll be employed and the more money you will make. A new report says that gap will continue to grow over the next seven years and it will take more than a high school diploma to compete for a good, family-sustaining job in the near future.

In July, the jobless rate for workers with a high school diploma was double that for workers with a bachelor’s degree – 4.6% compared to 2.3% – while the unemployment rate for workers with some college or an associates’ degree was 3.5%.

Meantime, the median earnings of people with a bachelor’s degree were 59% higher than the earnings of those who completed high school and didn’t continue with any other education or training.

The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) defines a “good job” as one with a median salary of $74,000 for people between 25-44 years old and $91,000 for people 45-64 years old. 

CEW’s new The Future of Good Jobs report projects that by 2031, there will be 87.8 million good jobs, a 21% increase from 2021. It goes on to say that as a share of all jobs, good jobs will increase for 59% to 62%. Artem Gulish, senior federal policy advisor for CEW and co-author of the report, says there are several trends that are driving this growth.

“One is technological. We know there has been recent developments with AI and other advanced technologies. Another trend is demographics. The baby boomers are increasingly retiring and leaving the labor market, so that opens up new job opportunities.

“There has also been recent federal investments through the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Chips and Science Act. Those are also creating new jobs and are expected to continue creating new good jobs in the coming years ahead,” he explains.

Gulish adds that politicians and civic leaders have become more focused on job quality. “Historically, politicians have generally been evaluated just based on unemployment and whether the unemployment rate is low. But in recent years, there has been more questions being asked. Even if there are jobs, are those jobs actually good? Will they actually support families with good wages and benefits and good work-life balance.”

Bachelor’s Degrees Preferred for Future Good Jobs

These projections come just as there’s a big push to drop college degree requirements for some jobs and instead focus on skills-based hiring, an effort to widen pathways toward good-paying jobs. While there will be more good jobs created in the coming years, The Future of Good Jobs report also finds that workers without some kind of postsecondary education will have less access to these good jobs. 

The good news is that you might not need a four-year college degree to be in the running for some of these good jobs, but a four-year degree is still the surest pathway to these jobs.

“Skills training is going to be important in the future – and it is already starting to become today – but skills training is not a replacement for college,” says Gulish.

According to the report projections, “Roughly eight out of 10 jobs on the bachelor’s degree pathway will meet the earnings threshold of a good job, compared to half of jobs on the middle-skills pathway, and just over a third of jobs on the high school pathway.

• 16.4 million good jobs (19% of all good jobs) will be on the middle-skills pathway,
• 13.2 million good jobs (15% of all good jobs) will be on the high school pathway,
• Together, jobs available to workers on the high school and middle-skills pathways will account for just over a third of all good jobs.”

Where the Good Jobs Will Be in 2031

Gulish says that some occupations offer workers a better chance of attaining family-sustaining earnings, depending on the educational pathway.

Promising occupational groups on the bachelor’s degree pathway:

• Management
• Business and financial operations
• Health care professional and technical
• Computer and mathematical scienc

Promising occupational groups on the middle-skills pathway

• Construction
• Health care professional and technical
• Protective services
• Installation, maintenance, and repair

Promising occupational groups on the high school pathway

• Installation, maintenance, and repair

The Impact of AI on the Creation of Good Jobs

While Gulish and I were discussing the report, I asked him about what kind of impact the focus on AI would have on good jobs in the coming years. He shared these thoughts.

“(AI) will probably increase the need for workers rather than reduce the demand for workers. Part of the reason is that new technologies – while they can disrupt existing jobs – they also create new jobs that we currently do not foresee or can’t specifically conceptualize. Historically, that’s been the case. I personally do not see any limitations to human ingenuity or productive endeavors.

“Certainly there will be some areas of the markets where there will be greater disruptions, There will be some disruptions and people will need to reskill, in some cases,” concludes Gulish.

Read the full Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce report here: The Future of Good Jobs